SEVERE WEATHER UPDATES FOR MONDAY 16TH OCTOBER

16th Oct 2017

Please find below the most recent updates on weather sent to all schools by Education Authority:-

To All Principals,

Please see below the latest two weather updates from John Wylie and Eileen Stamp of the Met Office:

Good Morning,

Forecast is going according to plan with a spell of severe weather expected across Northern Ireland this afternoon and evening.

AMBER warning has been reissued with the latest risk assessment remains broadly of a MEDIUM LIKELIHOOD OF MEDIUM IMPACTS: START TIME brought forward to midday.

Amber Means: There is an increased likelihood of bad weather affecting you, which could potentially disrupt your plans and possibly cause travel delays, road and rail closures, interruption to power and the potential risk to life and property. Amber means you need to be prepared to change your plans and protect you, your family and community from the impacts of the severe weather based on the forecast from the Met Office.

IMPACTS INCLUDE: Extensive tree damage with a knock-on impact on the power supply network.

Disruption to all forms of transport.

Large waves impacting eastern coasts at times.

Potential Structural damage

Risk to Life from flying debris.

John Wylie. Met Office Advisor (Civil Contingencies) Northern Ireland. Met Office. Cargo Complex, Belfast International Airport. Crumlin Co Antrim. BT29 4AB United Kingdom.

Subject: PWSA Strong Wind Warning Monday 16th October 2017 - Weather Warnings Update.

Good Morning,

An AMBER Warning of Wind has been issued for Northern Ireland valid from 15:00 on Monday 16^th October until 22:00 on Monday 16^th October 2017.

Ex-hurricane Ophelia is expected to affect Northern Ireland (and much of ROI) from Monday afternoon. This is expected to bring a very windy / stormy period to many areas.

Southeasterly winds will strengthen through Monday, reaching gale to severe gale force by the afternoon, even across inland areas with gusts 55 to 65 MPH but on and near the east coast 65-75 MPH for a while. Gusts of 80 MPH are likely near the most exposed headlands of Co Down. The evening looks set to be stormy too as winds slowly move around to a southwesterly direction by the early hours of Tuesday morning, only slowly losing some strength by daybreak Tuesday.

MONDAY:

The Yellow warning for wind issued on Friday have been updated (Low Likelihood / Medium Impact) – valid from 12:00 on Monday 16^th October until 23:55 on Monday 16^th October 2017.

The Amber warning (Medium likelihood / Medium Impact) is valid from 15:00 on Monday 16^th October until 22:00 on Monday 16^th October2017.

TUESDAY:

A yellow warning for Tuesday (Very Low Likelihood / Medium Impact) valid from 00:05 on Tuesday 17^th October until 15:00 Tuesday 17^th October 2017.

All are available to view (if not already received) at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2017-10-16 and on Hazard Manager.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS:

Given trees in full leaf and saturated ground states, there is the potential for fairly widespread tree damage with potential knock-on effects on the power supply network, transport network and a significant event seems at least possible. Given potential strength of wind gusts, structural damage to buildings is possible. Flying debris may cause injury and some danger to life.

Large overtopping waves are likely to affect coastal promenades in the east on Monday afternoon/evening and possibly the north coast for a time on Tuesday morning. This may bring dangerous conditions for pedestrians and traffic using these routes around high tide periods in particular.

COASTAL SURGE RISK:

Advice from DFI Rivers.

RAINFALL: Some heavy showers/rain is possible – though 20-30mm will probably fall over a protracted 12 to 24 period. As such it is felt that low level impacts from rainfall would be the most likely outcome at present – mainly of already saturated land and some minor run-off affecting roads in the west and northwest.

Kind regards,

Eileen

Eileen Stamp Met Office Advisor (Civil Contingencies) Met Office Cargo Complex Belfast International Airport

Antrim BT29 4AB United Kingdom